[Scpg] industrial implosion math questions

[m r h]

   Fred et al, I want to apologize for the "2 day estimate" I gave in my 
last email. The author I quoted quotes someone from "Ag Processing Inc." as 
saying  " that current soybean production, the most likely candidate for 
large-scale biodiesel production, could produce only 130 million gallons of 
biodiesel per year."
Source: 
http://www.flagteaparty.org/Publications/Headlines/Pages/2002/Jan_Feb2002/Pipedreamsandoilschemes.html


In the original letter I was confusing world consumption with US 
consumption, which isn't terribly far a part, I might ad.  I've read that 
the world currently uses 67 million BARRELS of oil a day.  The US uses about 
a quarter of that total, right? There are 42 gallons of oil in a standard 
barrel.

So, 130 million gallons/42 gallons per barrel=~3 million barrels a year. And 
if we use a quarter of the current 67 million barrels consumed each day in 
this world , then 3 million isn't even enough for one day. So we'll have to 
find some more good biodiesel ingredients besides soy.

Here's another math question:

        "On the heels of Senate Finance Committee markup of a suite of 
ethanol, biodiesel, and biomass energy tax credits, the House En­ ergy and 
Com­ merce Committee OK’d a nationwide renewable fuel standard (RFS) that 
would boost ethanol-biodiesel use to five billion gallons per year by 2015. 
"
source: http://www.ilfb.org/viewdocument.asp?did=5630&r=0.6134149

5billion gallons/42 gallons per barrel=~120 million barrels a year.  If we 
in the US  currently use 16 million barrels a day that should provide us 
with less than 8 days worth of "green fuel" in 2015, provided our economy 
doesn't grow in the next 12 years, and their projections are realistic.


Oil Standardization link: 
http://www.oilhistory.com/pages/Barrels/standardization.html

Some more fun facts from the US Geological Survey:  
http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of00-320/of00-320.pdf

-Mario

>From: Fred's Notebook <regenerative at earthlink.net>
>To: "m r h" <imario_ at hotmail.com>
>Subject: Re: [Scpg] Biodiesel may be the problem
>Date: Wed, 21 May 2003 17:00:14 -0700
>
>
>Hi Mario,
>I agree.  That sounds disturbing.  I don't like the idea of re-routing 
>veggie oils from the human food chain to the gas pumps.  With so many 
>hungry and malnourished people on the planet, it is hard to see the sense.  
>Waste oil, like from the deep fry cookers in every fast food restaurant, 
>cafeteria, donut shop, etc. makes sense to use.  There probably isn't 
>enough used fry oil in all the restaurants in a shopping mall to power the 
>busses that stop there.  The answer is probably in efficiency and a mixture 
>of hybrid veggie-diesel, hybrid bio-diesel, and electric vehicles.  I like 
>the prospects of biomass fed methane digesters, wind and photovoltaics.  
>Each bioregion would probably find its own mix.
>
>Please cite your sources for the 2-day supply of bio-diesel.
>Thanks,
>Fred
>
>At 08:45 PM 5/21/2003 +0000, you wrote:
>
>
>
>>  However my hopes were put off last week when I read about biodiesel. Not 
>>only is it a renewable resource that can provide the fuel that keeps this 
>>machine running, but it is economical. In one report I read that the net 
>>energy gain is about 1 for 3.  It takes about 1 gallon of veggie oil to 
>>fuel the tractor, the processing of the soy, the transportation to market, 
>>etcetera to gain 3 gallons of veggie "biodiesel" . My immediate thought 
>>was "Great! (sigh) Once gasoline hits 3 or 4 dollars a gallon, biodiesel 
>>will be very competitively priced in the market.  All land that has not 
>>been spared the wrath of the plow will be converted to growing soy for 
>>food and car fuel: more environmental destruction with less smog."  
>>However I just read that if all the soy that is currently grown in the US 
>>per year (a lot) was redirected from food to biodiesel production America 
>>would have enough of it to replace its oil consumption for about 2 days.
>
>
>

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