Introduction

Some of you read my January 2008 economic article with my 2008 predictions (which turned out to be quite accurate).

Here are my 2009 predictions along with links of website articles which provide more detail. If I am right, you will want to be making preparations. Parts of the old system are dying which opens the opportunity for people to create new and improved systems to meet their needs.

A course in permaculture is perhaps the best investment at this time. I've included information on my permaculture courses on Kauai and in Western Washington. I hope that both of my courses this winter are completely filled. Regarding the financial collapse, there are physical preparations to do as well as mental and spiritual preparations. Land, tools, seeds, plants, and machinery are wise investments at this time. It is also important to know how to use them in a wise and cost-effective manner, which is what we teach at permaculture design courses.

If you want to get yourself onto a farm or into a community this next growing season then look at the opportunities on my farm and the other farms and communities I mention in this section. I also provide links to the best networks for farm internships.

In my letter to Obama I detail some ways permaculture can help the US out of this mess.

Next Newsletter - Solutions

What would a new economic paradigm look like? In the next issue of my newsletter I want to list the best examples I can find of barter systems, local economic trading systems, books, websites and articles showing a way forward for local economies as well as international trade, etc. Let me know your favorite resources.

Thoughts on the 2009 Economic Picture

Throughout 2008 I kept a close eye on financial developments and analysis both from US and international sources.

In 2008 we have seen:
* The failure of increasing numbers of Wall Street financial institutions.
* The development of a world economic crisis which is said to be the worst financial crisis in the last 50, 100 or 500 years.
* Huge losses in stock market value and home valuations. A lot of people’s net worth has declined.
* Much harder to get loans - inter-bank, business and personal loans.
* A rise in unemployment and increasing inflation.
* Big federal financial bailouts of Wall Street, AIG, etc and right now they are talking about the big 3 automakers.

Here are a few concise statements of what I think
is going on behind the scenes and what might happen in 2009.

* The value of the dollar will decline significantly or may even crash to zero. This won’t be the first currency crash in the world. It has happened many times throughout history. What is different this time, is that world trade is more globalized then ever before.

* The US federal government will declare bankruptcy in the summer of 2009 and halt all foreign payments. Perhaps they will pay 10 cents on the dollar to domestic holders of US treasury bonds. If they don’t declare bankruptcy then they will just print so much money that inflation will be severe.

* The big federal bailouts (now in the trillions) are being pocketed by the wealthiest people in the world. They are not stimulating the economy or being used to free up loans. It is a total rip-off of the US citizens, current and future.

* It may be that this economic crisis was all planned years ago and that the timing of this crash is deliberately engineered. This may be a planned collapse. At any rate here is what it looks like may happen next:

* The federal government may halt (or reduce) pensions, social security, medicare, welfare, etc.

* State, city and local governments which depend on tax revenue will have reduced funds to work with. Already many of them are operating at deficits and slashing budgets.

* The federal government may confiscate all gold, silver, precious metals and foreign currency. This would include seizing all safety deposit vaults in banks.

* A bank holiday would be declared and nobody (except the wealthiest) would be able to access their bank funds. People’s bank accounts would be frozen and perhaps worthless or worth far less when the banks re-open.

* Needless to say this would drastically impact US foreign trade and foreign relations. Something like 80% of the world’s savings (in local banks around the world) have been loaned to the US federal government. This would wipe out savings around the world, cause a precipitous drop in global trade, and probably bring on a world-wide depression. Imagine how popular the US will be then . . . Imports into the US (including oil) will drastically decrease as the US dollar will be worth little or nothing.

* Large layoffs and growing unemployment, say 25% unemployment within two years.

* The standard of living in the US will decline greatly. Life would get very difficult in the US. How would trade get done? What would replace the dollar? US people have been largely apathetic and complacent but these developments would piss a lot of people off and fuel movements for change. Martial law and civil unrest are likely.

* There will be lots of foreclosures of homes, farms and businesses. Many people would be forced to sell what they have of value. Those with money will have a field day buying up assets at low prices. The more foreclosures the greater the popular resistance.

* The end of the US as sole global superpower. Already the rest of the world is talking about the end of US hegemony (i.e. world superpower and world policeman). The US has increasingly isolated itself, perhaps not at every national government level, but certainly in the eyes of the world’s people.

* The public and private wealth of the US has been looted and plundered in the last several decades and it looks like the thieves are trying to steal everything possible before the big crash. This large-scale transfer of wealth was (and is being) done with the complicity and support of presidential administrations and many members of congress. We can be sure that a lot of the ill-gotten loot is in Swiss bank accounts, the Bahamas and foreign assets. If an honest government ever comes into being, then we will see grand juries looking at who caused this mess and who profited.

* Obama getting elected was a breath of fresh air and a source of hope for US people and the entire globe. Alas, as of December 1st most of his cabinet appointments, advisers etc are the same cronies and big-money interests that have gotten us into this mess. At this point it looks like Obama will not change the course of affairs for the better, but will continue business as usual. Even if he means well, it is unlikely he could halt the crash.

* The Earth also has something to say about the economy. Climate change is likely to intensify with more economic losses from storms, droughts, crop losses, etc.

Suggested Response to the Economic Situation

What is our response? What can you do? What can we do?

* Diversify your assets (if you have any) preferably in real goods.
* If in debt, get out of debt ASAP.
* Prepare to start growing more of your own food. Order needed tools, seeds, plants; arrange a place to grow if you don’t have one; cooperate with other gardeners, read/research/take trainings in permaculture, master gardening, etc.
* Increase your local social support networks. More friends, More pre-planning for mutual support.
* Participate or help start local, alternative currencies, barter systems, etc.

By taking these steps you will be better off whether these dire predictions happen or not.

I certainly hope that I am wrong and that things will gradually improve instead of decline. I am pessimistic in the short term but optimistic in the long term. Out of this crisis comes the opportunity to set up local economies on a more equitable and ecological basis. The old system is obviously not working for the vast majority of the world’s people and is endangering the planet itself. I have a faith that people will find a way forward from the dark pits of the coming economic depression. It will involve making do with less, re-using/recycling everything possible and building local economies based on the basics of food, shelter and heating.
A much better phoenix may arise from the ashes of the old economic paradigm. Envision the best future you can. Let’s do it!

Good luck to all of you - Keep the light burning – Cooperate locally -

Michael Pilarski – December 1, 2008

Recommended Links

Check out http://people.tribe.net/friendsofthetrees (I just started this!) for links to some important articles, Youtubes and websites that I recommend, mostly on the economic crisis or economic alternatives.
These links will also be soon up on friendsofthetrees.net

Pacific Northwest - 2 Week Residential Permaculture Design Course

Feb 22 - March 8, 2009
Sahale Learning Center, Befair, Washington
Sustainabale Food Production & Food Security
100s of strategies!
1000s of techniques!
1000s of species!
Instructed by Michael Pilarski and Larua Sweany
Guest Presenters:
Larry Korn - Mu Landscaping Co.
Marish Auerbach - Herb'n Wisdom
Jenny Bell - Wilder Institute
Albert Postema - Earthwise Excavation
John Henrickson - Wild Thyme Farm
John Hoff - Goodenough Community
more information on www.goodenough.org and www.friendsofthetrees.net

Kauai Permaculture Design Practicum Course - March 2009

March 21 - 27, 2009
This is the first half of a permaculture design course. Participants who go on to complete a 7-day Permaculture Fundamentals Course at a later date receive permaculture design course certification. The course will teach permaculture design principles and methodology which can be applied to any parcel of land. The course is aimed at increasing food production by private landowners and on Kauai as a whole. Strategies for local food security, sustainability and restoring the health of native ecosystems are synthesized. Through lecture, slide shows, discussion, observation, field trips and hands-on activities, students will develop skills to design and implement sustainable systems that are in harmony with the natural world. We will cover hundreds of crops which can provide family needs or cash income. Although this course's focus is on Kauai, participants from other islands or the mainland are welcome. Course instructors are Michael Pilarski, Gary Seals and guest presenters.

Kauai Permaculture Sustainable Design Summit.
One or two day workshop to he held after the Practicum. Please visit www.activatekauai.org for updated schedule and registration information.

Recently Kauai has set a goal to make Kauai more sustainable and produce more of its own resources. This event will involve permaculturists and other people working for a sustainable Kauai. The participants will work together to brainstorm recommendations for island residents. How can permaculture design, principles, methodology, strategies and techniques help the people of Kauai.

Dry Herbs and Seeds In Stock

Check out the website for my December 2008 catalog. The new January 2009 catalog will be up soon.

Organic farms and communities looking for members and interns

Okanogan Biodiversity Farm.
I planted an acre this spring on two plots of land in the Okanogan valley near Tonasket, Washington. Vegetable yields were very good plus a substantial harvest of medicinal herbs and seeds. The gardens are put to bed for the winter and next spring 800 berries, trees and shrubs will spring to life along with large patches of perennial herbs, strawberries, and the fall garlic planting. I plan on increasing the size of next year’s planting with more vegetables, herbs and berries. I would really like some help. I am looking for one or two, full-season, farm interns. Experience preferred. I am also looking for partners in my ventures. These include farming, wildcrafting, making medicines, seeds, teaching, publishing, and marketing. Partners need to contribute a combination of finances, resources, skills and sweat equity.
If you are interested email me or give me a call.

Other Okanogan organic farms need interns. Interns could stay at just one farm or circulate between participating farms (at least four farms).

Cloud View Ecofarm near Ephrata in the Columbia Basin is looking for long-term members as well as people who would like to dedicate the full 2009 growing season to developing the ecofarm. If you are interested contact Jim Baird, jimmbaird@aol.com, 509-760-4777.

Wise Earth Organics is looking for community members and interns at their properties in Snonomish county (northeast of Seattle). postema@nwlink.com www.wiseearth.org

Lots of other communities and farms need more help too. If you are looking for an opportunity to get on the land or get farm experience please do your research and find one. If you need help on your place do your outreach. If my economic analysis in this newsletter is right, then there should be a lot of people looking for a place to land.

Here are the main farmer/intern linking services currently available:

www.organicvolunteers.org
The largest nationwide network with something like 500 hosts and thousands of interns. Some international listings.

www.attrainternships.ncat.org
National Sustainable Agriculture Information Service. ATTRA. Nationwide. Great website for ag info.

www.wwoofusa.org
WWOOF - USA: Willing Workers on Organic Farms. Nationwide.

www.wwoof.ca
WWOOF Canada - Willing Workers on Organic Farms. Canada and USA with an emphasis on British Columbia.

www.tilthproducers.org/placement.asp -
Tilth Producers Apprenticeship Placement Service. Lists farms in Washington State, most of which are organic farms, that host apprentices or interns or have openings for farm workers.

Letter to President-Elect Obama

November 10, 2008

Dear President-Elect Barack Obama,

I am writing to offer you some suggestions towards achieving full employment and a healthy American economy. I am 60 years old and am a permaculturist by profession.
Permaculture is a synthesis of natural building, alternative energy, sustainable food production, ecosystem restoration and decentralized, democratic, equitable social systems. The suggestions here are informed by my experience in permaculture, farming, gardening, forestry and ecosystem regeneration.

5 SUGGESTIONS:

1) Encourage/assist/allow local food production and distribution systems across the nation. Almost every county in the US could be largely food self reliant. The current, centralized, long distance food system costs society lots of energy/money. Local food production is one of the pillars of a strong local economy. This reduces the vulnerability of local communities to outside control, it stimulates the local economy and would enable healthier diets. Highly productive, urban gardening and small-scale farming are possible combining the best of permaculture, organic growing, and intensive horticulture. “Eat Local” campaigns have sprung up across the nation so there are lots of examples to expand on. This is a movement which is already in progress.

2) Encourage individual and community efforts to do ecological restoration on private and public lands.
A. Restoration of restore healthy native flora and fauna communities as fully-functioning ecosystems.
B. Restoration of native flora and fauna communities with an emphasis on planting and management which creates a stream of resources for human use as well as being a fully-functioning ecosystem.
C. Restoration of cultivated and settled landscapes to becoming more fully-functioning ecosystems while meeting human resource and habitat needs. Ecological functions such as soil building, accumulation of nutrients, healthy plant communities, lots of photosynthesis, regulation of water, water-holding capacity, erosion control, creation of oxygen, cleansing of air, a healthy web of life, and so forth.

Franklin D. Roosevelt’s CCC and WPA programs have some experience to inform this process but programs should be locally controlled and designed. Permaculture design teaches us that each piece of land is unique and that each client/group of clients is unique. Thus the design and/or restoration plan for each parcel of land and group of people will be unique. To implement these restoration activities for the whole country will take the efforts of millions of people and be a major source of employment that would pay back dividends over the long run.

3). Set up government grant or cost-share programs to do green audits and permaculture designs for homeowners, farms and businesses. The purposes being to increase on-site generation of food, energy and other useful resources as well as improve the livability of the environment for the residents. The concept has been applied to energy conservation. Energy companies and/or the government subsidize insulated windows and lower energy light bulbs. The permaculture design process looks at plugging energy leaks in the home and creating/renovating structures which reduce outside energy inputs by creating small-scale, energy systems. Besides the employment generated by permaculture designers (and design teams), there would be a huge employment in permaculture implementation businesses and services which install permaculture gardens, and systems for people who cannot do the work, such as elderly, handicapped, single parents, etc. Applied at the large scale this would create many jobs for designers, installation crews and maintenance. These jobs would increase local food production, create healthier, local economies and be a good economic investment.

Permaculture has a lot to offer to the residents of the United States and to every country and people of the world. Started in Australia in the 1970s it is now a worldwide movement involving hundreds of thousands of people and with many ongoing projects to learn from. Permaculture gets little attention from mainstream media and is virtually unfunded by government and corporate funds. Permaculture is grassroots and decentralized. We do not seek co-option by the federal government (nor by state, country, city or municipal governments), but there are ways that governments could assist our efforts rather than hinder us. There are tens of thousands of permaculturists in the US already working for a positive future. A small number, but we have developed training systems that could grow our numbers exponentially.

As part of your platform you promised Native Americans that you would create a special advisory position in your Cabinet for Native American affairs and that you would meet once a year personally with Native American representatives to listen to, and respond to, their concerns.

4) I suggest you create a permaculture advisory person in your cabinet as well. To enlist permaculture in your efforts to meet your campaign promises of more employment and a more secure economic future for all Americans.

5) President-elect Obama, I recommend that you take a permaculture design course in preparation for your big job ahead as President. I think you would be very glad you did and find it tremendously useful in the coming years. I know it will be difficult for you to take the time for a two-week, residential course. There are also courses run over a period of weekends. I shudder to think of all the security checks it would take to get clearance for a whole permaculture class (typically 15 to 30 people). The best idea would be for you to convene a special course for you and selected government personnel, particularly those working with agriculture, forestry, and land management. Obviously you would want to get the best permaculture teachers to teach this special course. I would recommend a team composed of David Holmgren, Max Lindegger and Penny Livingston-Stark.

David Holmgren is one of the co-originators of permaculture. He is a life-long resident of Australia . He is capable of applying permaculture at all scales, from local to national. His websites are:
www.holmgren.com.au
www.futurescenarios.org

Max Lindegger is a professional landscape architect who has probably done more professional, permaculture designs then anyone else in the world to date. He is also one of the world’s most experienced permaculture teachers and has taught in many countries. Lindegger is of Swiss heritage but has been a long-time resident of Australia.
His website is:
www.ecologicalsolutions.com.au/

Penny Livingston-Stark is the director of the Permaculture Institute of Northern California. She is one of the West Coast’s most active permaculture course instructors and can add a good understanding of the US conditions to augment the overall knowledge of Holmgren and Lindegger. Her website is:
www.regenerativedesign.org/

Good luck in your term as President of the United State. The nation will face great challenges during your 4-year term. It will call for radical changes. Permaculture offers a way forward that will allow the USA to survive and thrive. I hope you will look into this.

Respectfully,

Michael Pilarski
Tonasket, Washington 98855

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